THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON INFECTIOUS DISEASE TRANSMISSION: A STUDY ON THE SPREAD OF VECTOR-BORNE DISEASES IN TROPICAL REGIONS

Abstract

Climate change is unequivocally altering the dynamics of infectious disease transmission, particularly for vector-borne diseases (VBDs) in tropical regions. This study employs quantitative, problem-based research to investigate the correlation between climate variables—specifically temperature, precipitation, and humidity—and the incidence of dengue fever and malaria in Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa from 2003 to 2022. Utilizing longitudinal climate data from global meteorological repositories and epidemiological case reports from the World Health Organization, we conducted time-series analyses and constructed generalized linear mixed models. Our results demonstrate a significant positive association between rising mean temperatures and the expansion of the geographic range and seasonal duration of Aedes aegypti and Anopheles mosquitoes. Statistical models indicated that a 1°C increase in average monthly temperature correlated with a 15.2% (95% CI: 12.1–18.5%) increase in dengue incidence in urban Southeast Asian centers. Furthermore, anomalies in precipitation patterns, particularly increased rainfall variability, were linked to outbreak intensity (r = 0.78, p < 0.01). The study also reveals a concerning altitudinal shift in malaria case reporting, with previously unaffected highland regions exhibiting new transmission foci. These findings underscore the role of climate change as a key driver in exacerbating VBD burdens. The research concludes that current public health interventions are insufficiently adaptive to these rapidly changing environmental forcings and urgently calls for integrated climate-disease surveillance systems and predictive modeling to inform proactive, climate-resilient health policies in vulnerable tropical regions.